Dr. Gabriel Vecchi – Hurricanes, Climate Change, & Forecasting (5/15/13)

Dr. Gabriel Vecchi presented his current research at the May 13, 2013 Ocean Lecture & Educators’ Night. Dr. Vecchi discussed the relationship between climate change and hurricanes and how scientists use past and current data to make climate predictions. Following the lecture, we shared lesson plans related to hurricanes and climate change as well as discussed how to bring these topics into your classrooms/clubs.

Below we have included a summary of Dr. Vecchi, Background Materials, the broadcast of the evening’s program, the .pdf of the science presentation, and adapted Lesson Plans to teach on the topics of hurricanes and climate change.

Enjoy! The East Coast MARE Team

Dr. Gabriel Vecchi

Dr. Gabriel Vecchi –
Gabriel Vecchi is a Research Oceanographer and the Head of the Climate Variations and Predictability Group at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, NJ, where he has been since 2003. The focus of his scientific research is understanding the interactions between the atmosphere and oceans on timescales from weeks to centuries, including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon and the Asian-Australian monsoon. Gabriel’s recent efforts concentrate on predicting short- and long-term changes to tropical circulation and variability, including characterizing the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones and hurricanes, and global patterns of rainfall and drought.

Background Materials-

We will compile the following materials as optional background information if you wish to read about the topics that were covered during the event and included in the adapted lesson plans below.

Glossary:

Hurricane, Climate Change, & Forecasting Glossary

Hurricanes:

The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) has put together a “Hurricanes, Typhoons, Cyclones” website with a list of frequently asked questions related to hurricanes, including some basic facts about hurricanes and why they occur. Also available on this site is information about how scientists study hurricanes, what hurricanes look like, and links to additional information for teachers and students on this topic.
The Hurricanes: Science and Society booklet is a great resource for information about the science of hurricanes, how they are forecasted, and the impacts of hurricanes. This booklet is part of a larger website, which presents a lot of the same information but organizes this information into smaller subsections (Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island).
The National Hurricane Center has put together a booklet entitled “Hurricane Basics”. Included within this document are hurricane fast facts, background information on hurricanes, the origin and life cycle of a hurricane, the structure of these cyclones, how we observe and forecast these storms, and the hazards associated with hurricanes.
Interested in how hurricanes are forecasted using computer models? Check out this article on Weather Underground, which breaks down how scientists use mathematics and computers to track the path and intensity of hurricanes.

Hurricanes & Climate Change Science:

Knutson, T.R., I.M. Held and G.A. Vecchi (2012): Hurricanes and Typhoons: Will tropical cyclones become stronger and more frequent? PAGES News 20(1).
Knutson, T.R., J. J. Sirutis, S.T. Garner, G. A,. Vecchi, and I. M. Held, 2008: Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first century warming conditions, Nature Geosciences, doi:10.1038/ngeo202. (There is also a FAQ and Commentary page provided for this article.)
Vecchi, G.A. and T.R. Knutson: Historical Changes in Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storms: How well do we know the historical cyclone record?. (This summary webpage includes audiovisuals, data access links and a press release about the results)

Climate Change:

The National Research Council developed a 7-part video series explaining climate change science in July 2012.
The American Meterological Society released an Information Statement on Climate Change in August 2012, which is a summary of scientific issues of concern to the public at large about climate change.
The Global Climate Change group at NASA developed a summary of the Effects and Causes of Global Climate Change.
Global Climate Change group National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) also have a great website of interactive graphs and maps to demonstrate the Key Indicators that climate scientists use to look at changes in the Earth’s climate over time.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has a list of commonly asked climate change questions with accompanying answers, which may include some that your students have asked you previously.
The EPA published a “Climate Change Indicators in the United States” report in 2010 that reviews 24 indicators, each describing trends related to the causes and effects of climate change. It focuses primarily on the United States, but in some cases global trends are presented to provide context or a basis for comparison. You can download the Summary of Key Findings here.
The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) developed a concise summary of what Global Climate Models are and how they work.
In 2008, scientists and educators from the NOAA, American Association of the Advancement of Science (AAAS), NASA, and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)/University of Colorado- Boulder developed a a guide to define climate literacy in the United States. To read about the 7 Essential Principles and how they align with National Science Standards categories download the Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences guide.
Climate Communication: Science & Outreach is a non-profit science and outreach project dedicated to furthering the scientific understanding of Earth systems and global environmental change. The content on the site includes good descriptions and graphics separated into three categories: What’s Happening to Our Climate, How it Will Affect Us, and What We Can Do.
Climate Central created the website Surging Seas: Sea Level Rise Analysis to show threats from sea level rise and storm surge to all 3000+ coastal towns, cities, counties and states in the Lower 48.

Science Presentation & Evening Program-

If you are interested in watching the broadcast of the event, click here: https://www.ustream.tv/recorded/32877495

If you are interested in downloading the presentation slides, click here: Dr. Vecchi’s Presentation

Lesson Plans-

Hurricane Data Lesson Plans:

Hurricanes Over Time:Students will plot the average number of hurricanes per year for the decades between 1878 and 2007 to look at changes in the number of hurricanes over time. (Elementary School)

Science Practices: Generate Scientific Evidence Through Active Investigations – 5.1.4.B.1, 5.1.4.B.2, 5.1.4.B.3, 5.1.4.B.4

Hurricane Frequency Over Time: Students plot the average number of hurricanes per year between 1878 and 2007 to investigate patterns in hurricane frequency over time and to determine if climate change is influencing hurricane frequency. (Middle School)

Science Practices: Generate Scientific Evidence Through Active Investigations – 5.1.8.B.2, 5.1.8.B.3, 5.1.8.B.4
Science Practices: Participate Productively in Science – 5.1.8.D.1
Earth Systems Science: Climate and Weather – 5.4.6.F.1, 5.4.6.F.2

Hurricane & Storm Frequency Over Time: Students plot the average number of hurricanes per year and the average number of small duration storms between 1878 and 2007 to investigate patterns in hurricane and storm frequency over time and to determine if climate change is influencing the frequency. (High School)

Science Practices: Generate Scientific Evidence Through Active Investigations – 5.1.12.B.2, 5.1.12.B.3, 5.1.12.B.4
Science Practices: Participate Productively in Science – 5.1.12.D.1
Earth Systems Science: Climate and Weather – 5.4.12.F.2
Earth Systems Science: Biogeochemical Cycles – 5.4.12.G.5

** Data for all of these lesson plans (Each worksheet is for one of the lessons listed above, plus a worksheet with the raw data.) Data File

Haunted by Hurricanes: Students will determine if the frequency and intensity of hurricanes are changing using data from the National Hurricane Center. (High School)

Science Practices: Generate Scientific Evidence Through Active Investigations – 5.1.12.B.2, 5.1.12.B.3, 5.1.12.B.4
Earth Systems Science: Climate and Weather – 5.4.12.F.2
Earth Systems Science: Biogeochemical Cycles– 5.4.12.G.5

Hurricane Lesson Plans:

The Hurricane Story:Students learn about hurricanes through a story of Terrance. The accompanying worksheet helps to teach vocabulary and hurricane facts with writing prompts. (Elementary School)

Earth Systems Science: Climate and Weather – 5.4.2.F.1, 5.4.4.F.1

Movement of Air in High and Low-Pressure Systems: This activity helps students feel how high and low-pressure systems spin, which is also the reason why hurricanes always move in the same direction. (Elementary & Middle School)

Earth Systems Science: Climate and Weather – 5.4.2.F.1, 5.4.6.F.1, 5.4.8.F.1

Forces of Nature: Create a Hurricane: This is a National Geographic interactive that provides background material to students and then allows them to choose the conditions in the Atlantic Ocean to create a hurricane. (Elementary & Middle School)

Earth Systems Science: Climate and Weather – 5.4.2.F.1, 5.4.6.F.1, 5.4.8.F.1

Aim a Hurricane: This is a COMET program interactive that helps students to see how atmospheric conditions work together to determine where a hurricane will strike through a simplified model. (Elementary & Middle School)

Earth Systems Science: Climate and Weather – 5.4.2.F.1, 5.4.6.F.1, 5.4.8.F.1

Can buoys predict hurricanes?: Students will use real data from the hurricane array drifter buoys to track the drifter buoys and to determine the course of the gulf stream current. (Middle School)

Science Practices: Participate Productively in Science – 5.1.8.B.2, 5.1.8.B.3
Earth Systems Science: Biogeochemical Cycles – 5.4.6.G.1, 5.4.8.G.1

Pie Pan Convection Cells: Students are able to visualize the fluid motion of convection cells by heating a solution of soap, water and food coloring. (Middle School)

Earth Systems Science: Biogeochemical Cycles – 5.4.8.F.1

Hurricane Georges Web Quest: Students will use data from Hurricane George (1998) to do describe how and where hurricanes form, discuss the negative impacts of hurricanes on coastal communities, and indicate appropriate preparation activities when at-risk from an approaching storm. (Middle & High School)

Science Practices: Participate Productively in Science – 5.1.8.B.2, 5.1.8.B.3, 5.1.12.B.2, 5.1.12.B.3
Earth Systems Science: Climate and Weather – 5.4.8.F.1, 5.4.8.F.3, 5.4.12.F.3

Cyclone Center – Citizen Science Project: CycloneCenter.org is a web-based interface that enables the public to help analyze the intensities of past tropical cyclones around the globe for scientists. (Middle & High School)

Science Practices: Participate Productively in Science – 5.1.8.B.2, 5.1.8.B.3, 5.1.12.B.2, 5.1.12.B.3
Earth Systems Science: Climate and Weather – 5.4.8.F.1, 5.4.8.F.3, 5.4.12.F.3

Climate Change Lesson Plans:

Interested in lesson plans about climate change in general? Visit the Dr. Miller OLEN Climate Change Basics Lesson Plans section.